The Truth About Why People Are Leaving Texas in 2025

Texas has long carried the reputation of being the place where opportunity and affordability meet. No state income tax. Wide open land. Big homes at prices that made coastal transplants feel like they'd struck gold. For years, that story held up — and millions of people bet their lives on it.

But in 2025, cracks are showing in that foundation. Nearly 500,000 people left Texas in 2023. Texas still gained population overall — people are still arriving — but more residents are leaving than at any point in recent memory. And the reasons go well beyond the summer heat.

If you've been quietly asking yourself whether Texas still makes sense for your life, you're not alone. Let's talk about what's actually going on.

The Affordability Story Has Changed

Texas built its brand on being affordable. And for a long time, that was absolutely true. But the numbers in 2025 tell a very different story.

• Median home price in Texas: approximately $348,000
• Median home price in Austin: approximately $575,000 — and still climbing
• Price increase since 2019: nearly 40%, far outpacing wage growth
• Average property tax rate: 1.68%, one of the highest in the country
• Annual property tax bill: $6,000 to $9,000 or more, depending on your home's value
• Current mortgage rates: hovering above 6%

When you stack all of that together, the math stops working — especially for first-time buyers. The old argument that moving to Texas meant saving money simply doesn't hold up the way it once did. The wave of new residents that drove so much of this growth is the same force that eroded the very affordability that attracted them.

Insurance Premiums Are Hitting Hard

If the property taxes aren't enough to give you sticker shock, the insurance market might finish the job.

Texas homeowners have seen their insurance premiums rise 21% in one year, followed by another 19% increase in 2024. The average homeowner in Texas now pays close to $5,000 per year for property insurance — making it one of the most expensive states in the country for coverage.

This isn't just an abstract policy issue. It's playing out in very real, very visible ways.

This past spring, a massive hail storm tore through central and north Texas, including right here in the Austin area. The hail came down so hard and fast it looked like a winter storm — yards buried in ice, driveways gone, skylights shattered. Some neighborhoods went from 90-degree heat to snow plows clearing the streets within an hour. And that wasn't a one-off event. It was one of four major hail storms in a single spring season.

When your roof takes $20,000 in damage in May, you start doing the math on what it actually costs to own a home here. For many Texans, that math is prompting a serious rethink.

The Power Grid: Pride Turned Liability

Texas runs on its own independent electrical grid — ERCOT. For decades, that independence was a point of Texas pride. In 2025, it's becoming a source of anxiety.

This past summer, ERCOT projected a record-breaking peak demand of over 84,000 megawatts as heat waves rolled across the state. If the grid struggles to keep up, the consequences aren't just inconvenient — in 110-degree heat, a power outage can be genuinely dangerous.

Making the pressure worse: Texas is now one of the fastest-growing hubs for data centers, which consume enormous amounts of electricity. Energy demand could realistically double in the coming years, with no guarantee the grid can absorb it.

What used to be a sweaty summer inconvenience has become a legitimate fear. People are asking not just "will it be hot?" but "will the lights stay on?"

Infrastructure Wasn't Built for This Growth

Over the last decade, Texas added nearly 4 million new residents — more than any other state. The infrastructure that was already here wasn't designed to absorb that kind of growth, and the pressure is showing up everywhere.

Traffic: Drivers in Austin, Dallas, and Houston now spend 40 to 60 hours per year stuck in traffic. Public transit remains limited, particularly outside of city cores, so most of that growth just means more cars on roads that weren't built for them.

Schools: Some districts are adding portable classrooms faster than they can hire teachers to fill them.

Healthcare: ER wait times have more than doubled since 2019. Hospitals across the region are operating at or near capacity.

Water systems: Even basic infrastructure is straining. Central Texas issued a boil water notice earlier this year. In Austin alone, there have been five major waterline breaks in the last 18 months.

Growth brought jobs, energy, and real opportunity — that part is still true. But it also pushed public systems right to the edge. And for long-term residents who remember what Austin felt like before, that trade-off hits differently.

The Culture Shift Is Real

One of the harder-to-quantify reasons people are leaving is also one of the most honest: Texas doesn't feel the same anymore.

Austin spent decades cultivating an identity — creative, eclectic, a little offbeat. "Keep Austin Weird" wasn't just a bumper sticker. It was a genuine reflection of what made the city feel different from everywhere else. But rapid growth and the arrival of corporate campuses and high-rise condos have softened that edge in ways that longtime locals feel deeply.

As one publication put it: weird no more. The music's still playing, but the volume has changed.

Politics Is Now a Factor in Where People Choose to Live

This is a conversation that's happening whether people are comfortable with it or not. A report by The Guardian found that more Americans are making relocation decisions based on their values, not just jobs or housing costs — and Texas was one of the states specifically highlighted.

In 2025, Texas passed several high-profile laws, including one requiring the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms and another defining sex based strictly on biological characteristics. For some Texans, those laws reflect their values and reinforce why Texas feels like home. For others — particularly LGBTQ+ families and civil liberties advocates — they've become a reason to leave.

Both things are true simultaneously. The cultural and political direction of the state is influencing where people choose to put down roots, and that's not going to slow down.

So Is Texas Still Worth It?

Here's my honest take: Texas is still an incredible place for a lot of people. The job market is real. The opportunity is real. The grit and momentum that define this state haven't disappeared.

But the trade-offs are real too. The affordability that once made Texas a no-brainer decision requires a much more nuanced conversation today. Property taxes, insurance costs, infrastructure strain, grid reliability, cultural shifts, and political direction are all legitimate factors — and ignoring them doesn't make them go away.

If you're wondering whether Texas still works for your life, that's not a sign of disloyalty. It's a sign that you're paying attention. And if you're thinking about leaving, the worst thing you can do is make that decision in a panic. Make it with a plan. Make it with your eyes open. The right move — whether that's staying or going — is the one that genuinely supports your life, your values, and your future.