Loading...
Living in Texas
The fear-driven headlines have been relentless. Texas is collapsing. Builders are desperate. Just wait for rates to drop. But if you've been making decisions based on what you're seeing in the news feed, there's a good chance you're working off bad information.
NBC recently reported this is the strongest buyer's market since 2013. Yet most people still think the market is doomed. The real story isn't about falling prices — it's about power quietly shifting back to buyers. Here's a clear-eyed look at five of the biggest myths circulating right now, and what the data actually shows.
This is the one making the most noise, and it deserves the most scrutiny.
Redfin found that 15.1% of U.S. home purchase contracts were cancelled in August 2025 — the highest August cancellation rate since 2017. That sounds alarming until you look at why those deals fell through. According to the same data, 70% of cancellations were due to inspection or repair issues, not panic selling or financial collapse.
What that actually means: buyers are finally slowing down, asking better questions, and walking away from deals that don't make sense. That's not a crash — that's a correction toward sanity. In 2021, buyers were waiving inspections just to compete. The fact that they're no longer doing that is a sign of a healthier market, not a broken one.
On the price side, Forbes reports home prices are still up 1.7% year-over-year — the slowest growth in a decade, but still positive. Meanwhile, American homeowners are collectively sitting on $35.8 trillion in equity, with nearly half of all mortgages considered equity rich.
Slow growth is not the same as decline. This is stabilization.
This one gets repeated so often it's started to feel like gospel. And in some Texas cities — yes, including Austin, Dallas, and Houston — monthly ownership costs currently exceed what you'd pay in rent. That part is true.
But real estate is hyper-local, and the "renting is smarter" narrative doesn't hold up everywhere in Texas. In more affordable markets like San Antonio, Waco, Abilene, and Corpus Christi, owning can still outperform renting long-term — especially when you factor in equity growth and tax advantages.
The real lie isn't that buying is always cheaper. The lie is that renting is always the smarter move.
If you're relocating and not yet sure where you want to settle, short-term renting makes complete sense — it gives you time to learn the area before committing. But if you're planning to stay somewhere for three to five years or more, homeownership still wins on stability, control, and long-term value. Your decision should be based on your specific situation, not a national headline.
Drive through any new Texas neighborhood and you'll see it: prices slashed, 4.99% interest rates, $25,000 in free upgrades. It's easy to assume builders are panicking. They're not.
After years of record demand, builders are catching up on construction backlogs and using incentives to keep inventory moving while rates stay elevated. They know buyers are cautious, so they're packaging affordability in ways that look irresistible — but the math doesn't always work out the way it appears.
Here's a real example. A couple I worked with in Georgetown found a new home listed at $470,000. The builder was offering a 4.99% interest rate and $20,000 off the price. It sounded like a great deal — until we dug into the details. That 4.99% was a temporary buydown that would jump to 6% after year two. And that same floor plan had been listed for $445,000 just a few months earlier. The "discount" was marketing math, not a genuine price reduction.
According to NBC News, 65% of builders nationally are currently offering incentives. Many in Texas are using temporary buydowns to make payments appear lower than they actually are long-term. Read the fine print. What looks like a discount may simply be costs rolled into your loan or the purchase price.
As for the overbuilt argument — the data doesn't support it. According to Texas Realtors Q3 2025 market stats:
Those aren't crash numbers. Texas isn't overbuilt. It's rebalanced.
The "Texas exodus" narrative has been circulating for a couple of years now, and there's a kernel of truth buried in it — some people who bought during the 2021–2022 frenzy and got hit hard by rising property taxes and insurance costs have moved on. That part is real.
But the broader story looks very different. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas added roughly 473,000 new residents in 2024 — the largest numeric population gain of any state in the country. The U-Haul Growth Index ranks Texas third for inbound moves, trailing only Florida and North Carolina.
People aren't abandoning Texas. They're reshuffling within it.
Many residents are moving out of higher-cost urban cores into more affordable surrounding communities:
One of my own clients illustrates this perfectly. They moved to Austin from California in 2021, bought near downtown, and two years later sold — not to leave Texas, but to buy in Liberty Hill for more space and lower property taxes. They didn't give up on Texas. They just found a version of it that worked better for their life.
The Texas dream isn't dead. It's just shifting geographically.
This is one of the most emotionally understandable traps in real estate — and one of the most costly.
The Federal Reserve cut rates to a 4%–4.25% target range in September 2025, and mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level in nearly a year. Yet experts are clear: even a small rate drop isn't enough to fix affordability on its own. And waiting for bigger cuts comes with serious risk.
Here's the pattern that plays out every single time rates fall: buyers flood back into the market, competition intensifies, and prices climb. The leverage buyers currently have — the ability to negotiate, ask for repairs, take their time — evaporates the moment the market heats back up.
Returning to the 2–3% rates of 2021 is something no credible economist is forecasting. If you buy now, you can always refinance when rates improve. If you wait, you may end up paying tens of thousands more for the same home.
There's a phrase worth holding onto: you can refinance the rate, but you can't refinance the price you missed.
National trends are a starting point, not a decision-making tool. Real estate is hyper-local — what's true in one Austin suburb may be the opposite in another zip code. And it's personal. Your timeline, your finances, your goals — those matter more than any headline.
A few things worth doing before you make a move:
The real summary of where Texas real estate stands: the market isn't crashing, it's correcting. Renting isn't always safer, it's just short-term comfort. Builder incentives aren't desperation, they're strategy. People aren't leaving Texas, they're finding better versions of it within it. According to Forbes, crash risk remains low, inventory is balancing, and homeowner equity is at an all-time high.
Texas is entering a healthier, more sustainable housing cycle — one where informed buyers hold real power.
Expert in: Living in Texas
Austin real estate expert helping families find their perfect home in the Texas Hill Country.
More to Read
From the tallest building in Texas finally opening to Samsung's semiconductor plant coming online in Taylor, 2026 is the year Austin's growth stops feeling abstract and starts reshaping daily life across the entire metro.
Most buyers focus on price — but in Texas, skipping these five steps before you buy is what leads to years of regret. Here's what to do before you ever make an offer.
Before you fall in love with a listing, you need to know what to look for — from the photos online to the floors beneath your feet. Here's exactly how I help my clients spot a bad house fast, before it becomes an expensive mistake.
Ready to Make Your Move?
Have questions about Living in Texas? Get personalized guidance from a local expert who knows the Austin market inside and out.
Angie Ufomata
Real Estate Expert
Helping You Find Your Way Home